Norman, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS64 KOUN 211708
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday and
   continue into the weekend. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will
   be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Another day of low-impact weather is expected across the region with
warming temperatures. A belt of strong quasi-zonal flow looks to
remain across the central CONUS on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak
front will move eastward down the High Plains into western Oklahoma
by the afternoon. The combination of compressional warming and a low-
level thermal ridge impinging across the area will combine to
promote a warm afternoon (upper-80s/low-90s).

While daytime hours will remain free of precipitative weather,
there is a very low chance (20%) for a thunderstorm or two into
the late evening across northeastern Oklahoma, as an embedded wave
quickly glides across Kansas and Missouri. For now, greater
concern/coverage looks to remain to the northeast of the forecast
area, though trends will be monitored.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

The return of shower/thunderstorm potential arrives on Thursday. The
previously discussed system will push a surface front north-to-south
across the area on Thursday. An initial "round" of precipitation
looks to occur across east-central into southeast Oklahoma towards
daybreak (into afternoon) before additional thunderstorms develop
into the western Red River Valley towards the early evening as
surface heating crescendos. This will also include low potential
for severe weather given a favorable overlap of instability and
wind shear near/south of the surface front. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the main risks.

Friday may begin with continued scattered coverage of showers and a
few thunderstorms provided ascent overtop a quasi-stationary
boundary, likely to be across north Texas by this time. Additional
chances will arrive towards the initial hours of Saturday morning,
as a weak upper system moves eastward from the Texas Panhandle
vicinity and as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. The
latter risk may harbor thunderstorms with hail concern across
northeastern Oklahoma.

On the temperature front, Thursday looks to remain rather cool
behind the front, with the northern two-thirds of Oklahoma remaining
in the upper-70s during the day. Friday will be slightly warmer,
with a larger profile of 80-degree temperatures. Southwestern
Oklahoma and western-north Texas will be warmest both days, with
many locations warming into the mid to low-90s.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Concern for additional showers and thunderstorms will remain the
main message as we head into Memorial Day Weekend. While the
upper regime will trend towards an amplified upper ridge overhead,
signal remains for embedded/low-amplitude systems to round the
periphery of the ridge, perhaps close enough to support
thunderstorm development. For now, greatest chances (30-50%)
reside on Saturday evening and Sunday, mainly along and east of
the US-81 corridor.

While details on focused areas/threats of severe weather remain
uncertain at this update, given the progged return of seasonable
moisture, steep lapse rates and marginally sufficient deep-layer
wind fields, this threat cannot be discounted and further
refinement/focus will arrive over coming updates. Those with
outdoor plans over the weekend should make sure to stay up to date
with the forecast.

Saturday looks particularly hot across the region, with a few
locales across western-north Texas perhaps reaching 100-degrees
during the late afternoon. A surface front will offer cooling
conditions into Sunday (80s) before a potentially multi-day period
in the 70s arrives by Monday.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Expect some gusty south/southwest winds this afternoon south of a
weak front across northern Oklahoma, where lighter east/southeast
winds will occur. This front will work south overnight into
Thursday morning with northeast winds behind the boundary. Looks
to be a period of MVFR ceilings at WWR tomorrow morning. Have also
introduced some PROB30 at OKC/OUN/DUA for possibility of a few
storms late in the forecast period (15Z-18Z).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  59  78  58 /   0  10  10  20
Hobart OK         92  59  83  58 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  64  88  62 /   0   0  30  20
Gage OK           88  54  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     85  56  77  53 /   0  20  10  10
Durant OK         88  62  82  61 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30